NFL Insider: Vikes' Peterson draws comparisons to top backs
Adrian Peterson had a breakout game against the Bears. This was not a surprise to me.
Last spring in my draft reports for CBSSports.com I said if it had not been for his missed time in college -- in 2005 he missed all or parts of four games and in 2006 he missed seven games -- Peterson would have been the top pick on most of the draft boards ahead of Calvin Johnson and JaMarcus Russell.
The reason is because his ability at his position was better than JaMarcus Russell at his and you would rate a running back ahead of a wide receiver if both were of equal talent, which many would agree that Calvin Johnson and Peterson are.
I first saw Peterson when he was a freshman at Oklahoma. When I went to practice to watch the seniors at Oklahoma you could not help but notice Peterson. When you scout players you always compare them to players you have scouted in the past. The first player who came to mind when I saw Peterson move around in practice was Eric Dickerson. They had similar builds (long and lean), with explosive speed.
As a freshman, Peterson did not disappoint. He was a dominant player in the Big 12, rushing for 1,925 yards despite playing with a shoulder injury. As I pointed out he missed time in both of the next two years.
The next time I really looked at Peterson was when I watched tape of him last spring in preparation for the draft for CBSSports.com. He immediately jumped off the screen. His best characteristic was his big-play ability due to his explosive speed. He could score any time he touched the ball. He had the ability to run inside and outside. Despite his lean build he was aggressive as an inside runner and had the foot quickness to change directions in the hole as well as the instincts to decide when to make that quick move.
In the passing game he did not have that much production, but in watching him work out at the NFL Combine he showed he had good hands. My experience in the NFL taught me that almost all backs can improve on their pass-receiving skills with work. Most college backs who are workhorse types or the primary running back in college do very little work in the passing game, whether it be in catching the ball or in blocking.
There was no question in my mind Peterson was a top back, just like I thought he would be when I saw him as a freshman. However, I would rate Dickerson as the better of the two. The difference was Dickerson had looser hips and was more elusive in the open field than what I see from Peterson in that area.
The next step in evaluating a player is to compare him to players at his position who have been drafted at his position. I have a list of those players at each position dating back to 2000. I have been scouting since 1977, but only try to go back eight years at a time when I am grading players. There is no particular reason I choose eight years.
When I compared him to the backs drafted since 2000, the only backs who could enter in the discussion were LaDainian Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis. The criteria for comparison is that you feel the current player compares to these players in similar talent, though styles may be different. Once you have put the player in that range of the draft, in this case a top-five pick, you begin to compare him to the other players in this draft.
The X-factor for Peterson was his injury history. You must rely upon your trainer and doctor for advice. Since I was not with a team, I surveyed a number of teams in the NFL to get their opinions. They all seemed to be the same. He didn't have any chronic problems in any area, but might need shoulder surgery. Still there was some risk just based on missed time and that was why he slipped in the draft.
When faced with similar medical reports in the past I felt the determining factor in whether to take the player was whether the injury was chronic. If it was not, then you take the player. I was faced with a similar situation in 1999 while I was with the Redskins and we traded for Vikings quarterback Brad Johnson. He had missed considerable time the previous two seasons, but none of the injuries were chronic. While he was with us he stayed healthy and did so for most of the rest of his career. He is still active in the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys.
That being said I can understand the reluctance of some teams to take Peterson high in the draft with the amount of money being paid to rookies and the salary-cap ramifications if these players do not work out.
he next and final step in the draft process is do you take the player if you already have a proven running back on your team. Minnesota went with the theory of drafting the best player on their draft board regardless of depth at the position. This was a classic example of why teams do this, because the player they take may just be too good to pass up. Could Chester Taylor have done what Peterson did on Sunday versus the Bears? Of course not. Not many backs could.
All of us in personnel have learned the hard way. Take the best player when it is your turn in the draft. Congratulations to the Minnesota Vikings!
Jets should hold off on benching Pennington
In New York, there's a public outcry to bench Jets starting quarterback Chad Pennington. The Jets are 1-5 and the season is over, according to everyone there.
This is where the head coach and general manager have to remain calm. The season isn't over yet. The next two games are at Cincinnati and Buffalo at home. They can go either way.
If you go with young quarterback Kellen Clemens, you're sending a message to your team that you're taking a chance on the rest of the season. Up to now you have defended your decision to play Pennington because you believed in him and the players believed in your decision. Also, when you go with a young quarterback, you will have your ups and downs. There's no guarantee things will get better.
I like Clemens and think he was a good pick for the Jets when they took him. He showed his stuff vs. Baltimore earlier this year when he almost brought the Jets back to win the game in the fourth quarter, but that's after he didn't play well earlier in the game. Only the coaches have a feel for if Clemens is ready to run the offense well enough to give the Jets a chance to win. Clemens should be in that position, though, because he has been there long enough to learn the system.
When making these decisions, you can't let outside influences affect your decision-making ability. Coaches and general managers often say they don't read the papers or listen to talk radio or watch television, and that's very true. The main reason is they don't have time, but they also know public opinion can change quickly, so you have to be a rock in these times.
If the Jets are out of playoff contention when they hit their bye in three weeks, then you make the change and go with it for the rest of the season. This way, Clemens has two weeks to get ready for the next game, and you build some things into the gameplan that favor his abilities. This would give him the best chance to be successful and a chance to jump start the season over again.
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